Minnesota Mortgage Blog - MN Mortgage and Real Estate News

What came first, falling home prices or a slumping market?

Chicken or the Egg?

While pundits galore will claim many different views, the answer is rather simple in economic terms.  After years and years of record home price increases, the market simply couldn't support the increases anymore. Buyers could no longer afford the prices. House prices started falling first simply because no one was willing to pay the price anymore.

Most loan programs like to see debt ratios no higher than around 40% of income. FHA for example is 43% on a manual underwrite. Again, simple economics apply here. If the average wage in Minnesota (where I am at) is $784 per week ($40,784 per year), assuming no other debt (not likely), 5% down, PMI, taxes and insurance, this person could buy around a $180,000 home. Start throwing in debt, car loans, credit cards, etc., and the maximum home price starts sinking as fast as a rock in water.

As home prices increased, buyers started switching to high risk, short-term loan products to make homes more affordable. As we can see by today's market, that was a short sighted plan that didn't work out well for many.

Therefore there really is only one way to get demand up and people to start buying again. Affordable prices. Simple supply and demand economics. Too much supply because of too little demand forces prices to drop. As unsold inventory clears, the result will be higher prices, but fewer sales.

The higher price but fewer sales, the normal supply and demand cycle was dramatically upset the past ten years as people threw caution to the wind and kept demand artificially high. Everyone wanted in and was willing to pay whatever price was asked. Everyone figured you could make a killing in the housing market. This was especially evident in the investment property market.

A killing has occurred. Just not the one most people expected.

So what do we do? Nothing. The market will correct itself as prices drop, rates stay attractive, and housing affordability returns.

(C) 2008 Joe Metzler. www.JoeMetzler.com

Home owners are still optimistic about their home’s value, despite falling home prices all around them, according to a survey of homeowner confidence conducted by Harris Interactive for Zillow.com According to the survey, 72 percent of home owners believe their home's value has increased or stayed the same in the past year.

The reality is 75 percent of U.S. homes actually decreased in value from the same period a year ago, according to Zillow. In fact, in the first quarter home values dropped 7.7 percent year-over-year, which was the largest year-over-year decline in more than a decade, Zillow points out.

But home owners could be growing more realistic. Since the confidence survey was first conducted last December, home owners show signs they are moving closer to reality as 5 percent more respondents in the first quarter said they think their home value has decreased in the past year compared to those surveyed in the fourth quarter of 2007. Source: Zillow .com

Wondering what your homes value might be today? We here at the Metzler Mortgage Group at Mortgages Unlimited offer a FREE Home Value report right on this site. No cost, no obligation, and no one will call. We simply provide the service in hopes you'll keep us in mind for your next purchase or refinance!

Choosing your loan with "APR" CAN COST YOU MONEY

A borrower shopping for the best mortgage rate can easily be seduced by low rate offers that are accompanied by low annual percentage rates (APR). Federal law requires that APR be disclosed along side the actual interest rate as a means to help borrowers make a more informed decision on their mortgage.

The truth is that APR is a very poor way to comparison shop for a mortgage and can cause borrowers to make costly decisions. APR was created to provide a way for borrowers to account for costs associated with the mortgage. This sounds good because it may not be very easy to choose between a loan with a lower rate and higher fees or a loan at a higher rate with low fees.

The problem is that the APR calculation is based on bad assumptions. First, APR assumes zero inflation and that the value or buying power of a dollar today will be exactly equal to the value of a dollar 10, 20, or even 30 years from now. Next, the APR calculation assumes that the mortgage will never be pre-paid or paid. That means no refinancing or selling the home, which is highly unlikely since the average life of a home mortgage loan is less than four years. Just think about your own loans: Is it rare to see the same loan in place for even five years-forget 30 years?

The APR calculation does not consider the value of the money used for fees. So if you spent thousands of dollars in points or fees to get a lower rate, the APR calculation does not give any value to the money if it wasn't spent on closing costs. Finally, APR does not take tax consequences into consideration. This can be significant, since higher fees on the mortgage may not be deductible, while the higher interest rate typically is deductible. Moreover, APR can be easily manipulated by bad lenders, making it totally worthless.

How does APR work?
APR basically takes the base interest rates, calculates closing costs, and gives you a number. Technically, the lower the number, the better the deal. If two lender quote you the exact same (base) rate, the lender with the lower APR is supposed to be a better deal. If the lenders are playing fair, this works well in giving you accurate information.

If the two lenders are quoting different (base) rates, then the APR calculation is totally misleading.

Furthermore, the APR calculation only keeps the monthly payment information the same. Instead of the mortgage amount, APR uses "amount financed." This is the "amount financed" information on the Truth in Lending statement. Amount financed takes into consideration the fees that are lender imposed, such as application fees, points, commitment fees, and interim or per diem interest. So, amount financed is the mortgage amount less any lender fees, points, and interim interest. The more fees, the lower the amount financed. The monthly payment is then calculated as a product of the amount financed to give you the annual percentage rate or APR. So, the lower the amount financed, the higher the APR is. Amount financed can be manipulated by assuming a closing on the last day instead of the first day of the month. That would increase the amount financed and decrease the APR.

Here is a real example on a $150,000 fixed rate 30-year mortgage with zero points: Lender A is offering a great low rate of 5.875 percent and Lender B is offering a higher rate of 6.125 percent.

Let's look at the real story. The payment difference between the two is $24 per month. So is it worth paying $3,000 in fees to Lender A in order to save $24 per month? Hardly. It will take over 10 years for a borrower just to get back his investment-a bad choice when you consider that mortgage loans are typically retired within four years. To make the decision to go with Lender A even worse, if that's possible, borrowers rarely take the value of to day's dollars into account.

Rather than giving Lender A your hard-earned $3,000, you should give it to yourself. Reduce the loan balance on your mortgage by the fees you are saving. In the example given, that would reduce the loan from $150,000 to $147,000. This makes the payment difference just $6 per month instead of $24 per month! The true time to break even is really 500 months (more than 40 years). So it is impossible to benefit from the higher fee program from Lender A, because the maximum period on the loan is 30 years or 360 months. One more thing: when you calculate your tax deduction on the payment difference, it makes even more sense to avoid paying higher non-deductible fees. The obvious correct choice is to go with Lender B, even though the APR is lower with Lender A.

The bottom line is that you should forget APR and think twice about those advertised low rates when they are accompanied by higher fees.